Finance

Investment Mistakes to avoid

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In an earlier post we talked about the short volatility (VIX) products that had added to the recent global equity market volatility.

 

The experience of these products prompted a good article from Barry Ritholtz, Five Rules to Help Avoid Investing Disaster.

The Inverse Volatility Products will enter history along-side CDO’s. It is likely that 95% of the wealth invested in these Products will be wiped out when they are finally wound up/terminated.  Well worth following developments here.

 

I am somewhat bewildered from an investment strategy perspective why these exposures would end up in Portfolios at this time. It is a prime example of chasing historical returns. It is always a good idea to be guided by value.  The cost of buying volatility protection was very low. Therefore there was no value shorting market volatility, as these Products did. It is also a good idea to have a counter-cyclical bias in your investment approach: when markets are at historical extremes, i.e. historically low volatility, it is a good idea to reduce the exposure to that market extreme. Markets revert from extremes toward averages – often violently as we have recently witnessed.

This is basis of portfolio risk management and consistent with focusing on managing risk rather than trying to time markets and chase historical returns. I think most of the funds management industry was working out how to go long volatility given the over-brought nature of the global equity markets in January, not short it!  Some form of market correction was widely anticipated, the timing was just unknown.

 

Anyway, ………… the rules outlined to avoid making investment mistakes:

  1. Avoid new products – if they are a good investment no need to hurry – e.g. the Buffet rule in relations to Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)
  2. Learn from history – markets are volatile never get complacent – Hubris before the fall
  3. Never buy anything you don’t understand – another Buffet rule
  4. I would say get good investment advice i.e. wholesale products vs retail product comments, in fact considerable value can be added to client portfolios in this area and costs reduced by accessing appropriate investment strategies not readily available
  5. Greater returns always comes with greater risk – this is a fundamental axiom of investing, never forget it.  If it is too good to be true, it probably is.  There are never “easy” sustainable returns in investing.

 

Happy investing.

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement

 

History of Sharemarket corrections – An Anatomy of equity market corrections

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There has been lots written placing the current US stockmarket correction into a historical context.

The analysis of this blog draws on recent analysis undertaken by Goldman Sachs.

As you know, 2018 started out as the strongest start for global sharemarkets in over 30 years. The S&P 500 was up over 7% at one stage during January 2018.

The US equities bull market has been going since March 2009. This is amongst the longest period in history without the US sharemarket entering a bear market. The US sharemarket is up over 300% since 2009.

A bear market is usually considered to have occurred when sharemarkets fall by more than 20% in value.

A sharemarket correction is a fall in value of between 10% and 20%.

Volatility was at historically low levels over 2017. The US sharemarket, as at the end of January 2015, was up for 15 consecutive months and endured the longest period since 1929 without falling in value of more than 5%.

The fall in early February ended 499 trading days of the market not incurring a fall in value of more than 10%, which is amongst the longest stretch in history.

Records have been set and then broken!

 

With regards to bear markets and corrections, Goldman Sachs had some interesting analysis.

Corrections

There have been 22 corrections since 1945 of over 10%, and many more of less than 10%. The average correction is 13% over 4 months and takes 4 months to recover.

Bear Markets

There have been 14 bear markets, the average fall in value is 30% over 13 months and take 22 months to recover.

 

My own thoughts

Generally a bear market (i.e. 20% or more fall in value) does not occur without a recession (a recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth).

The key forward looking indicators, such as an inverted yield curve, significant widening of high yield credit spreads, rising unemployment, and falling future manufacturing orders are not signalling a recession is on the horizon in the US.

Therefore, if you are playing the odds, the current correction might have further to run but it is unlikely to turn into a bear market.

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement

 

Equity Market declines in Perspective

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Far from Unprecedented: Nine Selloffs Like this, and Nine Rebounds.

The Bloomberg article has much prettier graphs than I can do, but I can provide the view from a wonderful ski field in New Zealand, in the spirit of the Winter Olympics, Treble Cone near Wanaka.

150

 

So, since the beginning of the bull equity market run in 2009 there have been nine significant declines in global equities. On each occasion global equity markets have come back.

The nine episodes are outlined in the Table below. They make for interesting reading and are distant memories.

Now of course we maybe only partway through the decline of the current “correction” and it could be different this time i.e. no bounce

 

Market movements are in relation to the US S&P 500 Index.

Date Level of Decline Trigger
January 2016 -11% of three weeks Concerns over economic slowdown and mounting Chinese debt
August 2015 -11% over six sessions China’s shock devaluation of the Yuan
October 2014 -5.0% over week Spread of Ebola virus, concern over end of US Quantitative Easing and tensions in the Middle East
January 2014 -3.6% over the month Emerging markets equities and currencies sold down
October – November 2012 -7.2% US Election uncertainty between Obama and Romney
March – June 2012 ~-10.0% US Federal Reserve indicating it will likely hold back on further monetary Policy easing e.g. Quantitative Easing
July – August 2011 -17% US Credit downgrade and weaker than expected jobs report, Greece
January 2010 -8% Market correction uncertainty as to global growth outlook, particularly Europe
April – July 2010 -16% Similar reasons and the infamous flash crash
January 2018 -10.1% Rising longer dated interest rates, inflation concerns, Fed tightening, negative feedback loop of short volatility Products

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement

Global Equity Markets Meltdown – Don’t Panic Sell

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Worried About Your Retirement Investments? Don’t Panic Sell was published prior to the big drop in the markets on Tuesday.

Nevertheless its messages are still very relevant given further market weakness over the last week.

I like how the article starts with the behaviour economics aspect of market volatility. Unfortunately we feel the pain of losses much more than the pleasure of market gains.  The 24 hour cycle of news headlines does not make the feeling of portfolio loses any better!

As the article highlights, equity markets are back to levels they were at a couple of months ago. Unless you have a portfolio of 100% equities (which is unwise in most circumstances – particularly if you are saving for a house deposit) your portfolio loses are unlikely to be as great as those posted by the equity market indices. The benefits of diversification.

Diversification does work. Having said this, the recent daily market activity has witnessed loses in both fixed interest (bonds) and equities on the same day. This is where allocations outside of equities and fixed interest such as alternative strategies adds another layer of true portfolio diversification.

The article makes the very valid point of having an Investment Policy Statement (IPS). This is a critical and important document. At times like this it is worth referencing this document, accessing appropriateness of goals, objectives, and long term strategic asset (risk) allocations. Of course this exercise should be undertaken formally and frequently (yearly) irrespective of market conditions. The continued focus should be on what needs to be done to reach longer term investment objectives. Outcomes should be measured against these objectives not market indices.

 

Rebalancing Policy

An essential component to adding value over time and increasing the chances of meeting investment objectives is to have a well-articulated and documented Rebalancing Policy. This assists in managing the risks that build up within portfolios over time, such that market movements like the recent one do not have an outsized impact relative to expectations and risk tolerance levels.

 

There are lots of other points to consider in the article, namely don’t try and time markets.

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement