Why the Balanced Fund is expected to underperform

GMO concluded some time ago the time was right to consider moving away from the 60/40 Portfolio. Which is a “Balanced Portfolio” of 60% equities and 40% fixed income.

 

In a more recent note, GMO identify two key problems that lie ahead for the Balanced Portfolio, which are supportive of their conclusion. Which I think are problems facing all investors, but particularly for US and New Zealand investors.

 

First, stock and bond valuations are both extended, suggesting they will deliver less than they have historically.

As GMO point out, the math with fixed income (bonds) is straightforward. The 10-Year U.S. Treasuries yield is under 1% today. New Zealand’s yield is also near 1%.

Today’s yield is the best predicator of future returns.

Real returns, after inflation, will likely be negative over the next 10 years from fixed income.

In short, GMO highlight “It is more or less impossible for a bond index yielding roughly 2% to deliver the 5% nominal returns investors have become accustomed to over any period of time approaching or exceeding the index’s duration.”

 

GMO also highlight stockmarket valuations have risen. Recent market weakness provides some valuation relief, albeit, US valuations remain elevated relative to history.

 

GMO conclude, “the passive 60/40 portfolio will likely deliver disappointing returns. The low starting yield of a 60/40 portfolio represents the first problem we see ahead.”

 

The second issue identified by GMO is that risks within fixed income have risen, and not just from a valuation perspective.

As can be seen in the graph below, provided by GMO, duration is near its highest level in history. (Duration is the key measure of risk for a fixed income portfolio. It measures the sensitivity of a fixed income security’s price movements to changes in interest rates.)

Global duration

 

So, not only are interest rates at historical lows (low expected returns), but risk, as measured by duration, is amongst highest level in history.

 

This dynamic, low expected returns and heightened risk highlights the folly of an Index approach, similarly a set and forget approach in allocating to different asset classes. Similar dynamics also play out in sharemarket indices. Risks within markets vary over time.

Furthermore, the credit risk of many fixed income indices is also higher now than compared to the Global Financial Crisis. BBB and AA rated securities currently make up a greater proportion of the fixed income indices. Therefore, the credit quality of these indices has fallen over the last ten years, while the amount of corporate debt has grown. These dynamics need to be considered, preferably before the next credit crisis.

 

As GMO point out “Today, the sensitivity of a 60/40 portfolio to a change in yield is nearly as high as it has ever been. Both stocks and bonds are levered to future changes in discount and interest rates. Even a small amount of mean reversion upward in the aggregate yield of the 60/40 portfolio will be painful because there is less underlying yield to cushion any capital losses and those capital losses should be expected to be larger than normal for any change in yield given the high duration.”

 

Because of the higher duration and lower yields, smaller movements higher in interest rates will result in greater capital losses from fixed income securities compared to times when yields were higher. This is also the math.

At the same time, given the high valuation of sharemarkets, they are more susceptible to a movement higher in interest rates. Particularly those sectors of the equity market more sensitive to interest rate movements such as Listed Property.

Therefore, the historical diversification benefits from holding fixed income and equities are likely to less in the future.

 

GMO conclude “While investors have become conditioned to believe that a 60/40 portfolio delivers consistently strong returns, history shows this has not always been the case and the twin problems weighing on such a construction today suggest robust returns are unlikely going forward. Due to elevated valuations (low yields) and extended durations of both stocks and bonds, it is possible that in a future downturn investors will not receive the diversification they expect from their bond portfolio. Stocks and bonds have risen together and could certainly fall in unison as well.”

 

Although recent market events may have delayed this moment, they have not derailed the underlying dynamics within a Balanced Portfolio which will see it struggling to meet investor’s expectations over the next decade.  The risks identify above remain.

 

The Balanced Portfolio is riskier than many appreciate. I covered this in a previous Post. It is not uncommon for the Balanced Portfolio to have a lost decade of returns and losses of up to 30% over a twelve-month period.

 

Possible Solution

To address the threats to the Balanced Portfolio identified above GMO suggest the inclusion of Liquid Alternatives across multi-asset portfolios.

Such strategies provided portfolio diversification, importantly they have very little duration risk within them, a risk both equities and fixed income are exposed too.

GMO articulate the benefits of such strategies as follows: “Liquid Alternatives can provide diversifying and uncorrelated returns. While Alternatives should not be expected to keep up with robust equity markets, they can help shield large drawdowns given their lower equity beta exposure.”

Liquid alternatives largely generate their return outcomes independently from the returns generated by equity markets (beta) and fixed income market (duration). Thus they provide exposure to different risk and return outcomes from equities and fixed income.

GMO conclude “Liquid alternatives improve the robustness of our multi-asset portfolios by helping to protect against the problems that today’s low yields and high durations present.”

 

The benefits of such strategies has been evident over the last few weeks, helping to diversify portfolios from the sharp fall in global sharemarkets as a result of the spreading of the coronavirus.

 

To finish, I would add to the GMO commentary that well diversified portfolios should also have an exposure to Real assets such as Farmland, Timberland, Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Real Estate, TIPS (Inflation Protected Fixed Income Securities), Commodities, Foreign Currencies, and Gold.  These assets offer real diversification benefits relative to equities and fixed income, and to Balanced Portfolio in different macro-economic environments, such as low economic growth, high inflation, stagflation, and stagnation.

I covered the investment characteristics and  benefits of Real Assets to a Balanced Portfolio in different economic environments in a recent Post.

 

Happy investing.

 

Please read my Disclosure Statement

 

Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.

 

Reported death of the 60/40 Portfolio

The reported death of 60/40 portfolio, may well be exaggerated, but it certainly is ailing.

As reported by Think Advisor in relation to the 60/40 Portfolio (60% listed equities / 40% fixed income):

“No less than three major firms have issued reports in the last few weeks declaring it dead or ailing: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan.” 

All three firms have similar reasons:

  • Low expected returns, particularly from Fixed Income
  • Reduced portfolio diversification benefits from Fixed Income

For example, JP Morgan: “Lower returns from bonds create a challenge for investors in navigating the late-cycle economy,” “The days of simply insulating exposure to risk assets with allocation to bonds are over.” (A risk asset example is listed equities.)

 

With regards to the declining diversification benefits from Fixed Income in a portfolio Bank of America make the following point: Fixed Income (Bonds) have functioned as an offset to equity market loses over the last 20 years, this may not occur in the immediate future.

Technically, fixed income has had a negative correlation to equity markets over the past 20 years, interestingly, this did not prevail in the prior 65 years.

 

Underpinning these views is the expectation of lower investment returns than experienced over the last 10 years. Access to JP Morgan’s Longer-term Capital Market assumptions are provided in the article.

There is no doubt we are living in challenging times and we are heading into a low return environment.  I covered in this in a previous Post: Low Return Environment Forecasted.  This Post provides an indication of the level of returns expected over the next 5 – 10 years.

 

What to do?

JPMorgan strategists are calling for “greater flexibility in portfolio strategy and greater precision in executing that strategy.”

I agree, to my mind, a set and forget approach won’t be appropriate in a low return environment, where higher levels of market volatility are also likely.

Naturally they are calling for a greater level of portfolio diversification and are recommending, Corporate bonds, Emerging market equities and bonds, U.S. real estate, Private equity, and Infrastructure investment.  The last three are unlisted investments.

 

 

Personally, I think the death of 60/40 Portfolio is occurring for more fundamental reasons. The construction of portfolios has evolved, more advanced approaches are available.

For those interested I covered this in more detail in a recent Post: Evolution within the Wealth Management Industry, the death of the Policy Portfolio. (The Policy Portfolio is the 60/40 Portfolio).

The current market environment might quicken the evolution in portfolio construction.

 

Modern day Portfolios should reflect the lessons learnt over time, particularly from the Dot Com market collapse and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC or Great Recession).

Understanding the history of Portfolio Diversification is important. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was developed in the 1950s and resulted in the 60/40 portfolio.

Although MPT is still relevant today, the Post on the Short History of Portfolio Diversification highlights much more has been learnt since the 1950s.

 

Furthermore, we can now more easily, and more cheaply, gain greater portfolio diversification.  This includes an increasing allocation to alternative investment strategies and smarter ways to access investment returns.

This in part reflects the disaggregation of investment returns as a result of increased computer power and advancements in investment research.

As a result, Portfolios do not need to be over reliant on equities and fixed income to generate returns. A broad array of risks and return sources should be pursued.

This is particularly important for portfolios that have regular cashflows.  High listed equity allocations in these portfolios is a disaster waiting to happen e.g. Charities, Foundations, Endowments.

While those near or just entering retirement are vulnerable to Sequencing Risk and should look to diverse their portfolio’s away from listed equities.

 

There is still a place for active management, where real skill and truer sources of excess return are worth exploring and accessing. In fact, they complement the above developments.

There are shades of grey in investment returns, as a result the emotive active vs passive debate is out-dated.

 

I think KiwiSaver Investors are missing out and their portfolios should be more diversified.

 

Happy investing.

Please see my Disclosure Statement

 

Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.

Kiwi Wealth caught in an active storm

We need to change the conversation on investment management fees.

Kiwi Wealth recently released an insightful article on the case for having your money managed actively.

This article has, inevitably, being meet with a passionate defence of Index Management (also referred to as Passive Management). A debate that has been going on for some time, and we really need to move on!

Kiwi Wealth make the following comment in the introduction:

“The “active versus passive” debate has been a fixture in the investment industry for nearly 50 years. Passive investing is one of the cheapest ways to access equity markets globally, and has helped to drive down fees across the board. Passive investment managers and their suppliers have gone further than just offering low cost products however, and have portrayed actively-managed portfolios as a bad option for investors. We disagree, and believe, headlines supporting passive investing are largely driven by passive investment managers and index providers looking to frame the debate to their own advantage.”

 

I can’t disagree with that.

As the Kiwi Wealth paper touches on, there is a role for passive and active in constructing a robust portfolio.

The debate has moved on from black vs white, active vs passive, there are shades of grey in return outcomes (but maybe not 50 of them!).

The black and white debate is evident in this GoodReturns article, Passive Managers Reject Criticism. Also note the comments section as well.

 

I have written a number of Posts on Index management, highlighting their limitations, and risks, albeit I can see a role for them as part of a portfolio, as I can active management.

As with active management, it is important to understand and appreciate the limitations of what you are investing in.

I also hope we don’t follow Australia’s lead as an industry and focus too much on investment management fees. There is an appropriate level of fees, but it is not the lowest cost provider.

We need to change the conversation on investment management fees as recently highlighted by BlackRock, a large Index/Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) provider.

 

Index Funds do buy high and sell low, primarily because companies move in and out of indices.

Analysis by Research Affiliates highlights the trading costs of Index Funds (Passive Funds). Index Fund providers understand this and seek to minimise these costs.

As an aside, passive index funds are not passive, they are actively managed.

Albeit, there are huge trading costs around market index changes over time. These costs are incurred by the Index Funds, yet the costs are not evident given they are also included in market index returns. Index Funds incur these costs.

These costs are high, Research Affiliates estimates the difference in return between a company exiting and entering an Index to be 9.52%. The majority of this performance difference occurs on the day of index changes. It also only occurs on that proportion of the portfolio that is changing.

Stocks entering an Index tend to underperform over the next 12 months, while those leaving an Index tend to outperform over the following year.

For more, see this article on why low cost index investing is not necessarily low risk.

In another Post I highlighted that Index Funds have exposure to unrewarded risks and are often poorly diversified e.g. think when Telecom made up over 30% of the NZX and the US market is currently highly concentrated.

 

These articles are separate to the current issue of overvaluation in sectors of the US market, recently labelled, rather misleadingly, an Index Bubble, by Michael Burry, who was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-08 that triggered the Global Financial Crisis.

 

Just on active management, there is a growing level of academic research challenging the conventional wisdom of active management and in support of active management, as I highlight in the Post Challenging the Convention Wisdom of Active Management.

The research Paper attached to this Post is the most downloaded paper from Kiwiinvestorblog.

 

Closely related, and what has busted open the active vs passive debate, leading to the shades of grey, is the disaggregation of investment returns – the isolation of drivers of investment returns.

As the Post highlights returns can be broadly attributed to three drivers: Market returns (beta), factors and hedge fund strategies beta, and alpha (returns after the betas, which can be purely attributed to manager skill).

The disaggregation of investment returns is prominently expressed by factor investing (e.g. value, momentum, low vol) and that investors can now access “hedge fund” type strategies for less than what some active equities managers charge. These are “active” returns.

The disaggregation of returns and technology will drive future ETF innovation, particularly within the Fixed Income space and alternative investments.

As you know, the isolation of the drivers of investment returns is also driving the fee debate, as the Kiwi Wealth paper infers, investors do not want to pay high fees for an “active” return outcome that can be sourced more cheaply.

 

Happy investing.

Please see my Disclosure Statement

 

Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.

Unscrambling the Sustainable Investing Return Puzzle

“The evidence is compelling: Sustainable investing can be a clear win for investors and for companies. However, many SRI fund managers, who have tended to use exclusionary screens, have historically struggled to capture this. We believe that ESG analysis should be built into the investment processes of every serious investor, and into the corporate strategy of every company that cares about shareholder value. ESG best-in-class focussed funds should be able to capture superior risk-adjusted return if well executed.”

This is the key finding of a Deutsche Bank Group (DB) report published in 2012, Sustainable Investing, Establishing Long-Term Value and Performance

The DB report looked at more than 100 academic studies of sustainable investing around the world, and then closely examined and categorized 56 research papers, as well as 2 literature reviews and 4 meta studies.

To the point, they comment “… most importantly, “Environmental, Social and Governance” (ESG) factors are correlated with superior risk-adjusted returns at the securities level…..”

DB were surprised by the clarity of results. Which are as follows:

  • 100% of academic studies agree that companies with high ratings for Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and most importantly ESG factors have a lower cost of capital, for debt and equity. The market recognises them as having lower levels of risk.
  • 80% of studies show that companies with high ESG ratings exhibit market-based outperformance. The market is showing correlation between financial performance and what is perceived as the advantages of ESG strategies.
  • The single most important factor is Governance, Environment is next, closely followed by Social.

 

The study shows quite clearly that ESG factors matter at the security level, with consistent evidence of better financial performance.

The key for investors and fund managers is the ability to identify and capture these factors. This is a key issue as it comes down to the ESG scoring approach (whether active or index based) implemented, level and definition of portfolio exclusions.

It comes down to how ESG is integrated into the investment process.

 

Unscrambling Fund performance

A common perception is that Sustainable Investing is hard to define and provides mixed results – there is no really clear evidence it leads to a superior risk-adjusted return.

A key conclusion from DB is that “Sustainable investing has been too closely associated for too long with the performance of SRI Funds. These funds are not only an extremely broad category (i.e. in terms of investment mandate), but historically were based more exclusionary (or negative) – as opposed to positive best-in-class-screening.”

DB note that the Academic studies have not been aggregated and classified into appropriate categories, but have been mixed together, thus providing mixed results.

DB: “ By “unscrambling” them – as we do in this paper – a clearer picture emerges.”

 

“Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) in the academic literature have tended to rely on exclusionary screens – show SRI adds little upside, although it does not underperform either. Exclusion, in many senses, is essentially a value-based or ethical consideration for investors.”

With regards to the SRI Funds, the results are mixed, largely support they do not underperform, and there is no significant difference in performance.   Neutral to mixed results.

These results are limited to the review of SRI Funds only, they did not look at categories of ESG Funds.

 

DB found that ESG factors are correlated to superior performance at the security level, as highlighted above.

The real issue is how Managers are attempting to capture the superior performance from ESG factors at the security level in their portfolios.

Therefore, implementation and the approach taken to integrate ESG into the investment process is key in capturing the excess returns available from Sustainable investing as identified by the DB.

 

Increasingly, positive ESG investing, commonly referred to best-in-class, approach is being employed.

Best-in-class is an investment approach that focuses on companies that have historically performed better than their peers within a particular industry or sector on measures of environmental, social, and corporate governance issues. This typically involves positive or negative screening or portfolio tilting.

Best-in-class compares to exclusion, also called negative screening, where companies involved in certain “controversial” activities, such as tobacco or weapons are removed or excluded from an investor’s portfolio.

Best practice includes exclusions, ESG integration with a focus on best-in-class, and Impact investing, the full array of Sustainable Investing.

Crucially it requires an understanding of how to integrate ESG criteria in to the investment process, so as to capture the full value of the ESG factors.

 

Summary

DB note that the analysis on SRI performance goes a long way towards explaining why the concept of sustainable investing has taken so long to gain acceptance, it has been too closely associated for too long with the SRI fund manager results, which is a very broad category and has historically been based on exclusions, as opposed to a best-in-class screening.

They note that ESG investing, by contrast takes a best-in-class approach. DB have analysed the various categories within the universe of sustainable investing, they confidently say that the ESG approach, at an analytical level, works for investors and companies (in terms of lower cost of capital).

“It is now a question of ESG best-in-class funds capturing the available returns.” This is a key point.

So while Sustainable investing is the term use to refer to all form of investment, DB believe using ESG factors in a best-in-class approach is emerging as the key investment methodology. It is worth noting this was forecast in 2012 and is coming into fruition now.

DB note: “Investors should seek out investment managers who understand the ESG advantages and can leverage the information arbitrage that exists in the studies we examined. Sustainable Investing can pay dividends, but it requires managers who have internalised this information into their investment process and can also create appropriate strategies to help capture the upside that undoubtedly exists in this approach.”

Or put another way: “In effect, the conclusion is that there are superior risk-adjusted returns for investors, but managers need to take the right approach toward sustainable investing in order to capture these. For corporations, these are important results but the implication of lower cost of debt and equity capital must surely make this a key issue for any CFO, not just the CEO and Sustainability Officer.”

As an aside, this has implications in relation to the fee debate and manager selection. This will be covered in a future Post.

 

Another Comprehensive Study

A more recent study, ESG and financial Performance: aggregated evidence from more than 200 empirical studies, published in 2015 came up with similar conclusions.

They too found clear evidence in support of ESG investing. Their central conclusions was: “the orientation toward long term responsible investing should be important for all kinds of rational investors in order to fulfil their fiduciary duties and may better align investors’ interests with the broader objectives of society. This requires a detailed and profound understanding of how to integrate ESG criteria into investment processes in order to harvest the full potential of value-enhancing ESG factors……..”

As  mentioned, implementation is key. Therefore, when selecting an index provider or/and active manager, their integration of ESG factors into the investment process and strategy is very important, as also highlighted by the DB study.

The full conclusion of the 2015 study:

“Through a second-level review of 60 review studies – including both, vote-count studies and meta-analyses – on the ESG–CFP relation, we are able to combine more than 3700 study results from more than 2200 unique primary studies. Based on this sample, we clearly find evidence for the business case for ESG investing. This finding contrasts with the common perception among investors. The contrary perception of investors may be biased due to findings of portfolio studies, which exhibit, on average, a neutral/mixed ESG–CFP performance relation. It is important to be aware that the results of these (to date about 150 studies) are overlaid by various systematic and idiosyncratic risks in portfolios and, in the case of mutual funds, by implementation costs. Still more than 2100 other – in particular company-focused – empiric studies suggest a positive ESG relation. ESG outperformance opportunities exist in many areas of the market. In particular, we find that this holds true for North America, Emerging Markets, and in non-equity asset classes. Our results propose that capital markets so far demonstrate no consistent learning effects regarding the ESG–CFP relation: Since the mid-1990s, the positive correlation patterns in primary studies have been stable over time.

 Based on this exhaustive review effort, our main conclusion is: the orientation toward long-term responsible investing should be important for all kinds of rational investors in order to fulfil their fiduciary duties and may better align investors’ interests with the broader objectives of society. This requires a detailed and profound understanding of how to integrate ESG criteria into investment processes in order to harvest the full potential of value-enhancing ESG factors. A key area for future research is to better understand the interaction of different ESG criteria in portfolios and the relevance of specific ESG sub-criteria for CFP. These insights will shed further light on the ESG determinants for long-term positive performance impacts.”

 

Happy investing.

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement

 

Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.

 

Challenging the conventional wisdom of active management

The attached paper, Challenging Conventional Wisdom of Active mgmt *, undertakes a review of the most recent academic literature on active equity management.  It concludes by challenging the conventional wisdom of active management.

 

The conventional wisdom of active management, which is based on research over 20 years old, runs along the lines of the following:

  1. The average fund underperforms after fees.
  2. The performance of the best funds does not persist.
  3. Some fund managers are skilled, but few have skill in excess of costs.

 

Nevertheless, a review of the current literature finds a substantial body of research that disagrees with the conventional wisdom of active management.

 

The authors of the paper conclude “taken as a whole, our review of current academic literature suggests that the conventional wisdom is too negative on the value of active management.

The literature that followed Carhart (1997), the basis of current conventional wisdom of active management, has documented that “active managers have a variety of skills and tend to make value-added decisions, such that, after accounting for all costs, many actively managed funds appear to generate positive value for investors.”

“While the debate between active and passive is not settled and many research challenges remain, we conclude that the current academic literature finds active management more promising for investors than the conventional wisdom claims.”

 

Quoting from the paper’s introduction:

  1. “Regarding average performance, Berk and van Binsbergen (2015) find the average active fund outperforms an equivalent index fund by 36 basis points per year, while Cremers, Petajisto, and Zitzewitz (2012) and Linnainmaa (2013) show that standard approaches to estimating average fund performance can be biased against finding that active management adds value.”
  2. “Considering performance persistence, Bollen and Busse (2005) and Kosowski, Timmermann, Wermers, and White (2006) both find some evidence of persistence among top-performing funds.
  3. “Several studies identify groups of funds that appear to have skill in excess of costs. For example, Cremers and Petajisto (2009) show that funds with ‘high active share,’ meaning funds with holdings that greatly differ from their benchmark, tend to outperform their benchmark. They also show that the performance of funds with low active share drives the results of previous studies indicating that the average actively managed fund underperforms. Similarly, Amihud and Goyenko (2013) show that funds with past performance that is not readily explained by common factors, such as the performance of large-cap stocks versus small-cap stocks, perform well in the future.”

 

“The research has also considered how the actions of active managers create value in different ways. Wermers (2000), among others, shows that many funds select stocks that outperform the market, while Kaplan and Sensoy (2005) and Jiang, Yao, and Yu (2007) show that some funds can correctly time the market. Other research finds that active managers create value through corporate oversight (Iliev and Lowry, 2015) and tax management (Sialm and Starks, 2012). The returns on these activities vary; Pastor, Stambaugh, and Taylor (2017) and von Reibnitz (2018) show that the amount of value creation depends on market conditions. “

 

It must be remembered that it over 20 years since the publication of Carhart’s landmark study on mutual funds.  Its conclusion—that the data did “not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers”—helped form the ‘conventional wisdom’ that active management does not create value for investors.

 

20 years on, this paper could well be a landmark paper and is well worth reading.

 

I don’t want to enter the passive vs active debate. I find it very dogmatic. From personal experience I can see a place for both passive and active management, including the use of Exchange Traded Funds and alternative investment strategies. There are active managers who can consistently add value, nevertheless they are rare.

I do think some people hold on to some pretty outdated views on active management and analysis based only on US Mutual Fund data may have its limitations.

 

Often it is hard to identify successful active managers. A recent paper from a very well respected British university concluded that Asset Consultants were not very good at identifying successful managers.  Nevertheless, their research results showed that active managers did outperform on average!!

 

With regards to fees, see my Post, Investment Fees and Investing like an Endowment – Part 2.

 

From my own investment management experience there are a couple of guiding principles I always reflect upon, which I think are relevant for the active vs passive debate:

  1. Beware of Hubris before the fall
  2. “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes

 

Happy investing.

 

*The paper is: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Active Management: A Review of the Past 20 Years of Academic Literature on Actively Managed Mutual Funds, K.J. Martijn Cremers, Jon A. Fulkerson, and Timothy B. Riley, September 2018.

 

Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.

 

Please see my Disclosure Statement