Most retirement calculators project your “nest egg” (or your lump-sum savings).
However, increasingly the focus is more on the goal that really matters: whether your current savings can provide you with the annual “paycheck” you want in retirement.
It is possible to estimate how much your current savings will generate as an annual lifetime income. Conversely, it is possible to calculate how much is needed to be saved (Wealth) to reach a certain level of annual lifetime income when turning 65. These calculations can be undertaken for a range of ages e.g. from 55 to 74.
Traditionally saving for retirement means saving as much as you can (lump-sum) and trying to make your savings last a lifetime.
Yet, the biggest question, and one of the hardest to answer, has been what level of retirement income will my lump sum deliver over my retirement?
A good estimate to this question can be determined.
For example, there are number of Indices that can calculate the estimated lifetime annual income given someone’s age and size of nest-egg.
These Indices are better than vague rules of thumb, they are not magic, it’s just math.
More importantly, they are practical and the underlying investment strategy can be easily implemented.
Although these Indices are for US based investors, they are worth understanding given the underlying concepts and approaches.
Following these concepts and approaches will enhance the likelihood of reaching a desired standard of living in retirement.
Hopefully such indices/calculations will be more readily available for New Zealand investors in time.
Such indices are widely available overseas. By way of example are the BlackRock CoRI and EDHEC-Princeton Retirement Goal Price Index series.
Both of these Indices aim to help investors estimate how much their current savings will generate in annual lifetime income when they turn 65.
EDHEC-Princeton have also developed an Index that measures the performance of a portfolio invested in a goal-based investment strategy, Goal-Based Investing Index Series (See below).
By using these Indices, a quick and simple calculation can be undertaken to understand how much retirement income a lump-sum will likely generate.
Therefore, they are a great tool to start a conversation with your financial advisor i.e. discuss any changes you may need to make in your savings or investment strategy to help meet your retirement income goals.
How these Indices work is outlined below.
In closing, it is encouraging that KiwiSaver providers are required to include retirement savings and income projections in annual statements sent to KiwiSaver members from 2020 onwards.
This is a good start. The investment knowledge is available now to deliver a stable and almost secure level of income in retirement. Such investment strategies are aligned with the KiwiSaver income projection initiative instigated by the Financial Markets Conduct Amendment Regulations.
The OECD encourages the retirement objective is to be the generation of income in retirement and for there to be coherency between the accumulation and pay-out phase of retirement.
Currently most investment products are poorly positioned to meet these objectives.
Therefore, the retirement investment solution needs be customised to the individual and there needs to be a greater focus on generating a sufficient and stable stream of replacement income in retirement. A regular Pay-check!
Please see my Disclosure Statement
Global Investment Ideas from New Zealand. Building more Robust Investment Portfolios.
Black Rock CoRI Indexes aim to help investors estimate how much their current savings will generate in annual lifetime income when they turn 65.
The CoRI Indexes are a series of age-based U.S Fixed Income indexes. Each CoRI Index seeks to track the estimated cost of annual retirement income beginning at age 65.
By way of example, if the Index Value is 23.47, a US investor aged 65, and have a US$1,000,000 nest-egg, would generate an estimated annual retirement income of US$42,608.
Estimations based on a range of ages can be undertaken.
Access to the CoRi calculations is here. Remember this is for a US is based Investor, but a quick use of the tool will display its power.
The calculations depend on a number of assumptions, including number of years until you reach age 65, current interest rates, life expectancy, and inflation expectations.
The calculations are similar to those relied on by sophisticated pension plans and insurers. They include cash-flow modelling and actuarial practices to estimate the cost of annual retirement income, coupled with liability-driven investment techniques, to build a fixed income portfolio.
Greater detail on the CoRi methodology is available here.
EDHEC-Princeton Goal-Based Investing Index Series
The EDHEC-Princeton Goal-Based Investing Index Series is a joint initiative of EDHEC-Risk Institute and the Operations Research and Financial Engineering (ORFE) Department of Princeton University.
Research efforts undertaken towards the design of more meaningful retirement solutions, with the support of Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management group, led to the design of the EDHEC-Princeton Retirement Goal-Based Investing Index Series.
Through the Indices they aim to promote the use of state-of-the-art goal-based investing principles in retirement investing.
“At the root of this initiative is the recognition that none of the existing “retirement products” provides a completely satisfying answer to the threefold need for security, flexibility and upside potential. Annuities offer security, but at the cost of fees and surrender charges. Target date funds have more moderate costs and they have growth potential, but they offer no guarantee in terms of wealth at the horizon or in terms of replacement income.”
There are two Indices.
The first is the EDHEC-Princeton Retirement Goal-Price Index series.
The Goal Price Index series has been introduced as the appropriate tool to measure the purchasing power of retirement savings in terms of replacement income.
This Index, represents the price of $1 of retirement wealth or $1 of replacement income per year.
There are Retirement Wealth Indices as well.
Both indices can be adjusted for the cost of living or not.
The Indices, which are available for a range of retirement dates, can be used to evaluate the purchasing power of savings in terms of retirement wealth or retirement income and answer the question: are my savings sufficient to secure my wealth or income objective?
This is similar in application as the BlackRock CoRI Indices outlined above.
The second Index is the Retirement Goal-Based Investing Index series. This represents the performance of improved forms of Target Date Funds (TDF) invested in a goal-hedging portfolio (GHP) and a performance seeking portfolio (PSP).
Therefore, it is an enhancement on the Income Indices outlined above.
The role of the GHP is to replicate changes in the price of retirement wealth or replacement income (i.e. to replicate the performance of a Goal Price Index above).
The EDHEC-Princeton indices are based on the application of goal-based investing principles.
EDHEC argue that the index series answers two important questions from a retirement investing standpoint:
- “How much replacement income can be acquired from a given level of retirement savings? Given that income, and not wealth, is what matters in retirement, the ability to translate wealth into replacement income is critically important in assessing individual portfolios’ adequacy with respect to retirement needs. The Goal Price Index series has been introduced as the appropriate tool to measure the purchasing power of retirement savings in terms of replacement income.”
- “How does one generate the kind of upside potential that is needed to achieve target levels of replacement income while securing minimum consumption levels in retirement? Dynamic allocation to two suitably designed “safe” and “risky” building blocks (namely the retirement goal-hedging portfolio and the performance-seeking portfolio), is required to achieve this dual objective. The Goal-Based Investing Index Series has been introduced to provide a benchmark for such dynamic retirement solutions, which can be regarded as improved, risk-managed forms of target-date funds.”
For those wanting more detail on the EDHEC Goals Based Investment approach see my previous Post: A more Robust Retirement Income Solution.
The values of the indices are published on the EDHEC-Risk Institute website.